Race Decides Presidential Races in America

No one wants to talk about it. Pundits rationalize it away. Yet race, America’s social cancer, was the silent tipping factor in the 2024 Presidential election. Not eggs. Not the economy. Here’s why…

America has spoken.

This is the most unique election, not only in this nation, but in the history of the world.

A “business tycoon” reality show host, elected once, twice impeached, who is not legally allowed to run a charitable organization in New York State, a 34-count felon, facing federal classified documents charges, with sentences in the hundreds of years, with a real history of bungling billions, bungling a pandemic, killing hundreds of thousands, beats all of that by getting himself elected, for a second time, by 4.6 million votes, about 3.27% of all votes cast.

Not a landslide.

Not a mandate.

The results were very much in line with what polling, going into the election suggested was the range of outcomes. Very close.

Sleight tipping points, then, matter. A lot.

As the dust settles, and we start ripping apart the myriad causes of the loss, of which there are a few, the media still isn’t talking about the one drum that Donald Trump beat to victory:

RACE.

Other than a few black, and latino pundits, who were trying to understand some of the polling data, the media, writ large, went into denial mode. They focused on other aspects of the verbal toxic sludge gushing from the toupéed dancing spigot. Trump banged that tribal drum hard.

That is what worked.

The Kamala Factor

At first, the Trump camp was thrown off by Biden’s withdrawal, from the race. A black-Asian woman, with a Jewish husband, could, indeed, be a threat to victory.

His internal polling suggested that no one goes broke pedaling hate, and fear, especially to America’s white tribe.

It was just enough tipping point to move the needle to that 3% in Trump’s direction, and rob the Harris camp of the momentum that the “Hope” candidacy had, in 100+ days.

More on that, in a bit.

Polarization Pummels Political Constituency Cross-Cutting

Thus Trump’s confidence, in winning, I understood. I hoped, though, that he would be defeated by the better angels of a lot of people whose personal interests transcended race, and power.

America’s two party system used to be much harder to read. Cross-cutting cleavages, people who belong to several racial, social, gender, or religious alignments, used to make for much more unpredictable elections.

A white Christian woman might not always vote reliably in one, or the other alignment. The worries of their personal lives, and the world around them, generally used to cause them to tilt one way, or another.

With our ever-increasing polarization, though, and the rising tide of minority populations, the most core tribal issue, race, has historically dominated America’s political life.

No one goes broke pandering to hate, and fear, in the world. It sells products. It elects the unelectable. Trump put his thumb into racial fears of “replacement” and “wokism” and “killer immigrants.”

3.27% more popular vote, tipping the Electoral College, in the key battlegrounds.

So, here we are. On the road to the far right’s fascist wet dreams.

Again.

I wrote an article “It’s the Skin Color, Stupid,” in September, 2017. It’s covered ground, that hasn’t changed a bit. Please read it, when you have a moment. It very much relates to the long history of how we got here.

For this article, though, let’s talk about how racial tribalism dominated the 2024 presidential election, with one caveat.