Global Political Crises (Still) Boil Down To Two Words: Fossil Fuels
Asking “why” all of this neofascist turmoil is happening to America? Follow the money.
HUFFINGTON POST
Published: Aug 19, 2017, 09:46 AM EDT | Updated Aug 26, 2017 | Revised 12.16.2024
Power is always about the money.
For a moment, you are FILTHY rich. If you had trillions of dollars, in natural resources, in the ground, under your complete control, what would YOU do, to make sure that no one devalued it? How many billions would you spend, to stop the world’s governments from devaluing your assets, with green energy?
This joke is on us, with an unlikely punch line: What do Donald Trump, Russian hacking, Brexit, American Nazis, January 6th, the Religious Right, the NRA, terrorism, populism, anti-globalism, the Ukraine War, and global warming all have in common?
Fossil Fuels.
While we obsess about Trump’s current political circus, or faux “populist” movements in the UK, Germany, and France, which are the trees, there is this 300m year-old ‘forest’ of economic power, that spreads from Russia, to the Middle East, to the U.S.
Like the royal forests and parks of old, fossil fuels are the property of 80 to 100 of the world’s richest people. Their global impact is felt throughout the planet.
Want to understand why the politics of your nation seem to be going crazy?
Follow the money.
Black Gold
Have Less Oil? Gain More Wealth.
Over the last 170 years, fossil fuels, not gold, have been the greatest source of wealth and power.
Since I first wrote this article, in 2017, we’ve consumed another 130M barrels of oil, dropping proven reserves, the stuff in the ground, still from 1.7 TRILLION (T) barrels, worth $104T† in 2017, to 1.57T barrels, worth $120T, in 2024.
Wait! What? Yes, you read that right. Less oil, in the ground, is worth $16T more.
Part of that? Crude oil improved in value, over seven years. Up from $61.33† to $72.69 per barrel. A 16% increase.
Over the time between that first date of publication, and today, 81M barrels per day were produced. 215B barrels in all, were used by the world’s population. a
At an average price of $73.00† per barrel, oil producers total revenue was approximately $15.74 trillion.
That’s not the only fossil fuel though.
COAL
Coal production, over the last seven years, has been up. Way up, too. In 2023, coal production rose to a record high of 8.5 billion metric tons. Increased use in India, and China, more than offset declines, by nations in the Northern Hemisphere.
As of 2021, the last time that the Energy Institute statistics for coal were reported, total proved recoverable coal reserves were estimated at approximately 1.16T short tons.
Back in 2017, there were around the same amount of coal reserves: 1.1T tons of proven coal reserves in the world. It had a value of $67.59† per short ton, roughly $74.56T†
Global coal reserves remained stable, even though annual consumption exceeded 8B metric tons, worldwide, during this period. Additional deposits were discovered. The addition roughly offset consumption, preventing a sharp decline in the reported reserve totals.
As of November 26, 2024, coal was approximately $121.85 per ton, for a value, of its proven reserves of $141.3T.
Coal gained 62%, over the last seven years.
NATGAS
Natural gas reserves, in 2017, were 195.2 trillion cubic meters. A value of roughly $25T†.
As of 2023, natgas proven reserves are188.1 trillion cubic meters, $22.72T, worth a $2.28B less than they were, seven years ago.
THE OIL BIZ GOT RICHER, SLOW WALKING THE SHIFT TO GREEN ENERGY.
Fossil fuels proven reserves’ approximate world value, in 2017, were $204T (Inflation-adjusted).
Today, fossil fuels are worth $278 trillion dollars. $74 Trillion more, than just seven years ago.
So, if you were one of the 100-ish people, to control such wealth, what would YOU do, to make it increase, not decrease, over the last decade?
Political disruptions, of small “d” democracies, by any means, has been PROFITABLE.
WHO BENEFITS from the POLITICAL DISRUPTION OF DEMOCRACIES
Five nations, Russia, Iran, Qatar, the United States, and Saudi Arabia are the top holders of both oil, and natural gas reserves. So who, in each of those countries, stands to benefit?
United States
The US generates 13.2 million barrels per day. That wealth is mostly split between America’s three biggest producers:
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Chevron Corporation
ConocoPhillips
There are also smaller, yet politically active players:
Occidental Petroleum
Koch Industries
These companies talk about green energy, in their future, for a reason. Most of the domestic draw is from the Permian Basin. At current production levels, as of 2022, there are only 48.3B barrels of proven reserves there. That will only hold out another five, to ten years.
American companies can benefit from the extreme right opening up new potential sources of oil. Hence “Drill baby, drill.”
Russia and Saudi Arabia, each produce 10M+ barrels a day, of oil.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has proven oil reserves of roughly 267 billion barrels, about 17% of the world's total. That could last 80-95 years, at current production rates. They have a very vested interest in keeping that oil increasingly more valuable.
For Saudi Arabia, oil production is about 92.5% of their budget revenues, 97% of their earnings from exports, and 55% of their gross domestic product (GDP).
Russia
Russia's proven oil reserves, as of January 1, 2024, are approximately 80 billion barrels. At current production levels, that will last 20-30 years. Russia’s one big export is energy. Oil and gas are 52% of Russian government revenues, and more than 70% of its exports
Qatar
In 2023, Qatar's proven crude oil reserves were estimated at 25.2 billion barrels. At current production levels, that lasts 50-60 years.
It’s 70% of Qatar’s total government revenue, more than 60% of gross domestic product, and roughly 85% of export earnings.
Iran
Iran’s numbers are less accurate. Blending reliable sources, they hold the second largest remaining proven reserves, at 209B barrels, as of 2021. Their proven reserves could last for 175-200 years.
Who Sponsors Disruptive Events for the World’s Nations?
What nations are alleged to be leading sponsors of political, cyber, and terror events that disrupt and destabilize other nations?
Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Qatar.
Global Warming is Big Oil’s Biggest Threat
Global warming is real, irrefutable science, not opinion, or belief.
Here’s a real inconvenient truth that Al Gore’s passionate documentary clearly forgets:
How do you take $278 trillion, in assets which make the 100 world’s most powerful people powerful, and make them worth far less, within ten or fewer years, to save the planet?
Governments including the United States the European Union, India, and Russia, in the Paris Agreement want to save millions of lives, and protect quadrillions of dollars in property from damage, due to: flooding, violent storms, dislocating droughts, famines, and more.
That requires coordinated action.
The people who control the fossil fuels do not want that coordinated action, because it undercuts their wealth and power.
Putin’s Ukraine War started when the Biden Administration agitated about fast-tracking green energy agendas, around the world, in 2020.
There is huge profit, in destabilizing world governments, and creating global distractions, that keep both citizens, and their politicians, embroiled in political and sectarian strife, sidelining, or terminating, any major action on global warming.
Now, connect the dots, from the forest of all of that wealth and power, back to the destabilizing weeds of geopolitical politics:
Islamic Terrorism - Fossil fuels (Saudi Arabia/Russia/Iran/Qatar): More than 94% of Islamic terrorist-related deaths were carried out by Sunni jidhadists educated, and often funded by money from members of the austere Wahhabist sects of Saudi Arabia, including ISIS and al-Qaeda. According to VICE, Saudi Arabia’s government, and charities, have spent $4B exporting radical Wahhabism to the rest of the world. The Iranians were singled out by the Trump regime, but account mostly for the support of Shia militants in Iraq, Syria, and the Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank. The Russians support the Shia in Iran, and the recently fallen Syrian regime.
Brexit - Fossil fuels (Russia/Saudi Arabia): The Russians are alleged to have had their hands in the Brexit vote for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. Without firing a shot, cyber and the funding of propaganda and extremist groups neutralizes one of the world’s leading social and financial powers, that have thwarted the ambitions of Moscow. Part of the push for British nationalism has been the fear of immigrants and terror. Saudia Arabia is the top sponsor of terror in Great Britain. After the vote, they’ve been courting PM Theresa May to separate the UK from the EU.
Trump - Fossil fuels (Russia/Saudi Arabia) Russia meddled in the 2016 American presidential election not only through cyber attacks. The Russians appear to have been bankrolling the radicalization of the religious right, the NRA, which in turn dominate Republican politics. Trump’s narrow presidential win, in 2024, saw him name numerous pro-Putin people to his administration, after the election.
Nazis & Klan - Fossil fuels (Russia) Russia has ties to the American white nationalist movements. A common belief in white nationalism and power has created common ground.
Afghanistan & Syria - Fossil fuels (Saudi Arabia/Qatar) They bankroll the Taliban, while at the same time publicly supporting the U.S. in Afghanistan and Syria. Their backing of ISIS/ISIL was the subject of a John Podesta email leaked by Wikileaks: “[W]e need to use our diplomatic and more traditional intelligence assets to bring pressure on the governments of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are providing clandestine financial and logistic support to ISIL and other radical Sunni groups in the region.”
American Funders - Fossil fuels (United States) - One step to the left of the Trump crowd, Watergate funder Richard Mellon Scaife launched the right-radicalization of America in the late 1970s. The Koch Brothers picked up the standard, with the Tea Party. They didn’t just buy politicians and judges. They raised them from radicalized think-tanks, colleges and universities. They built ALEC to funnel legislation that both helps their interests and distracts from what they’re doing to destroy democracy from within.
Keystone XL Pipeline - Fossil fuels (United States) - The Koch brothers are the biggest holders of toxic tar sands in Canada. Stoking angry, largely white anti-government resentment and tying in gun zealots’ notions of “freedom” have given them the manpower to distract and divide and push more construction of fossil fuel, not wind or solar, projects.
Obamacare (ACA) - Fossil Fuels (United States/Russia) The healthcare debate has connections to the continued use of oil. World population growth will hit 9B, unsustainable, by 2050, and most humans will be out of jobs that have been automated. The rich see no reason to care for those people, and let them “breed” into an even greater burden, to them. Uninsure 32m people, and 8m to 10m die early. Fewer people drawing on resources. Attacks on affordable health care are “herd thinning.”
Every country on the globe could sign off on the Paris Agreement, but, without finding a way to either buy off the richest people in the world, or make the value of their fossil fuels worthless, their owners will use ANY means to retain their power.
Fewer than a hundred people have 278 TRILLION reasons to divide, distract, and disengage citizens of the world to keep the oil flowing, even if 100M people may die by 2030, and 75% of the world’s population may perish, from the heat, by 2100.
† Adjusted for inflation, from August, 2017 to December, 2024
You’ve made several salient and valid arguments here.